Let me start with something that genuinely confuses me: Queensland is simultaneously experiencing some of the worst mortgage stress in the country *and* some of the strongest property price growth.
How does that make sense?
As a finance broker working closely with pilots, aviation professionals, and property transactions across Queensland, I'm watching this unfold in real time. And frankly, it's concerning.
The Numbers Don't Lie (But They're Complicated)
On Friday the 13th—an appropriately unlucky date—the Reserve Bank's February interest rate rise officially took effect across Australian lenders. The RBA lifted the cash rate by 0.25% to 3.85%, reversing the relief from last year's rate cuts.
According to Roy Morgan's latest mortgage stress data, Queensland mortgage holders are set to be hit hardest by this increase. Currently, 23.6% of Queensland mortgage holders are classified as 'At Risk' of mortgage stress. If the RBA raises rates again in March (which many economists predict), this will jump to 26.8%—an increase of 3.2 percentage points.
That's more than one in four Queensland mortgage holders under significant financial pressure.
But here's where it gets strange.
Brisbane Property Prices Are Still Surging
KPMG's latest Residential Property Outlook predicts Brisbane house prices will increase by almost 11% in 2026, with unit prices expected to rise 7.8%. That's nearly double Sydney's projected growth of 5.8%.
Last year, Brisbane's median home price jumped 14.6%—approximately $135,900—to surpass the $1 million mark. The market has shown no signs of slowing, even as borrowing becomes more expensive.
So we have rising mortgage stress *and* rising property prices happening at the same time.
How is this possible?
The Forces Driving This Paradox
After working through dozens of loan applications over the past few months, here's what I'm seeing:
1. **Supply Shortage Trumps Everything**
A slowdown in construction has hampered the supply of new housing in Brisbane, concentrating buyer demand on existing properties. When there aren't enough houses and people keep arriving, prices go up—regardless of what interest rates are doing.
The demand-supply imbalance is real. Vacancy rates in Brisbane sit below 1% in many suburbs. That's not healthy—that's a crisis.
2. **Interstate Migration Continues**
People are still moving to Queensland in significant numbers. The lifestyle appeal, relative affordability compared to Sydney, and strong job market (particularly in aviation, mining, and healthcare) keep drawing people north.
Many of my clients are relocating pilots, cabin crew moving to Brisbane bases, or aviation professionals taking advantage of Queensland's growing aerospace sector.
3. **Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) is Real**
According to KPMG's chief economist Dr. Brendan Rynne, Brisbane's housing market is thriving due to several factors including fear of missing out among buyers and an expanded 5% Deposit Scheme from the government, which has boosted demand.
I've seen this firsthand. Buyers are making decisions based on "prices will be higher next year" rather than "can I comfortably afford the repayments?"
That's... not great financial planning.
4. **The "At Risk" Definition Matters**
Being "at risk" of mortgage stress doesn't mean people are defaulting. Roy Morgan defines mortgage holders as 'At Risk' if their mortgage repayments are greater than a certain percentage of household income—depending on income and spending—while 'Extremely at Risk' means even the interest-only portion exceeds a safe proportion of income.
Many people are stretched but managing. But "managing" leaves zero room for unexpected expenses, job changes, or further rate rises.
What This Means If You're Looking to Buy in Queensland
Here's my honest take as someone who helps people navigate these decisions daily:
**The Optimistic Case**
If you're financially secure, have strong income (particularly dual-income households or pilot couples), and can handle potential further rate rises, Brisbane's property market could deliver strong capital growth over the next few years.
Brisbane's property values are up 86.7% over the past five years. That's significant wealth creation for those who bought in 2020-2021.
The 2032 Olympics will continue driving infrastructure investment and long-term value growth in Brisbane and surrounding areas.
**The Realistic Case**
A 0.25% interest rate increase can add around $90–$100 per month to repayments on a typical $600,000 home loan. While this may seem small, it adds more than $1,000 per year in extra costs for many households.
And there's genuine risk of another rate rise. The RBA's Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser indicated the central bank will "continue to do whatever is necessary" to return inflation to its 2–3% target band, with projections showing inflation may not fall back within the band until mid-2027.
If you're already at your borrowing limit, another 0.25% rise could push you into genuine financial stress.
**The Cautious Case**
By mid-2026, affordability once again becomes a handbrake, especially in Brisbane and Perth, where several years of aggressive price growth have pushed borrowing capacity to its limits.
Property prices can't rise faster than incomes indefinitely. Eventually, buyers simply can't borrow enough to keep paying higher prices. When that ceiling hits, markets slow or correct.
What I'm Telling My Pilot and Aviation Clients
As someone who works specifically with pilots and aviation professionals, here's my advice right now:
**If You're Buying:**
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**Stress-test your budget beyond the bank's assessment.** Can you handle another 1% rise in rates? Because it's possible.
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**Understand your pilot income structure matters.** Allowances, rostered days off, and variable components of your salary are treated differently by lenders. Some lenders understand aviation income better than others—this is where a specialist broker adds real value.
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**Don't just chase capital growth.** Yes, Brisbane has strong growth forecasts, but financial stress isn't worth it. Buy what you can genuinely afford.
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**Consider your career stage.** Are you a first officer expecting a promotion to captain in 2-3 years? Your income trajectory matters for serviceability. Planning around future income increases (documented and probable) can inform your borrowing strategy.
**If You're Refinancing:**
The refinance market will be very strong this year. Borrowers will be looking for cheaper rates, or answers to how to refinance and get equity out of property.
If you're on a rate above 5.8-6%, there are better options available. Banks have tightened up on trust and company lending, but non-bank lenders are being more aggressive to recapture market share.
I've been helping clients move from higher-rate loans into more competitive products. Sometimes it's worth exploring options even if you think your current lender is competitive.
**If You're Waiting:**
Waiting for prices to drop significantly probably isn't the right strategy in Brisbane. A sharp downturn still looks less likely in the absence of a meaningful lift in supply. Low stock levels and limited new supply should continue to provide a floor under values.
But waiting for more rate certainty? That's reasonable. No one wants to buy at the peak only to face higher repayments in six months.
The Bigger Picture: What Happens Next?
Markets are now pricing in the risk of another rate increase as early as May 2026 if inflation data fails to soften. CBA and NAB economists both expect a second hike this year.
That would take the cash rate to 4.1%. For Queensland borrowers already stretched, that's a painful scenario.
Meanwhile, Brisbane property prices are expected to continue rising—potentially up to 11% in 2026—driven by genuine underlying demand, the expanded 5% Deposit Scheme, and continued housing undersupply.
So the paradox continues: rising stress, rising prices.
My Take: What This Actually Means
After 20+ years across finance, real estate, and sales, here's what I genuinely believe:
**The Queensland property market isn't broken—it's just incredibly tight.** We don't have enough housing for the number of people who want or need to live here. Until that changes, prices will stay elevated.
**Mortgage stress is a real risk, not a media beat-up.** One in four Queensland mortgage holders being "at risk" should concern all of us. These are real families, real financial pressure, real consequences if rates keep rising.
**Not everyone should be buying right now.** I know that's a strange thing for a finance broker to say, but it's true. If you can't comfortably afford the repayments with rates 1% higher than today, renting might be the smarter short-term decision.
**For those who can afford it, Brisbane still offers opportunity.** Strong employment, lifestyle appeal, infrastructure investment (hello, Olympics), and continued population growth create a solid foundation for long-term value.
What I'm Watching
Over the next few months, I'll be paying close attention to:
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The RBA's March and May decisions on rates
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Queensland's rental vacancy rates (still critically low)
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New housing supply figures (are we building enough?)
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Pilot workforce trends (expansion at Virgin, Qantas, regional carriers)
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First Home Guarantee uptake (government scheme helping first-time buyers)
If you're a pilot or aviation professional navigating this market, my advice is simple: **get proper advice from someone who understands both property finance and aviation income structures.**
Because the difference between a loan approval and a rejection often comes down to how your income is presented, which lender sees it, and whether the broker knows how to structure it properly.
The Queensland property market isn't going to make sense anytime soon. But with the right strategy and realistic expectations, you can still make good decisions.
Just don't let FOMO drive those decisions.
*Need help working through your property finance options? Understanding how your pilot income is assessed for a home loan? Or just want to stress-test your borrowing capacity before making a move? That's exactly what I do.*
*Regan Lacey | Astir Professional Services
Finance Broker | Pilot | Your Industry Insider
📧 regan@astirprofessionalservices.com.au | 📞 0431 132 010*
Questions or need help with your finance options? Get in touch. I specialise in helping pilots and aviation professionals navigate lending requirements.